По данным наблюдений за 1981–2018 гг. проведен анализ широтного положения кромки льдов в августе – сентябре в восточных морях Российской Арктики (Лаптевых, Восточно-Сибирском, Чукотском). Установлено, что исходный ряд состоит из двух существенно различающихся частей: 1981–2001 гг. с устойчиво южным положением кромки и 2002–2018 гг. с устойчиво северным положением кромки. При этом размах колебаний в положении кромки между экстремальными годами составляет около 1000 км. Показано, что режим пространственного смещения кромки на север отличается в западной и восточной части акватории, по разные стороны от Новосибирских оcтровов. В течение 2002–2010 гг. наибольшее смещение кромки на север наблюдалось в Чукотском и Восточно-Сибирском морях (максимум 2007 г.), а в течение 2011–2018 гг. — в море Лаптевых (максимум 2014 г.). Исходя из волновой природы колебательного изменения положения границы льдов, предполагается, что в течение 2020-х гг. следует ожидать некоторого возвратного движения кромки льдов в южном направлении.
Автор заявляет об отсутствии конфликта интересов.
The goal of the present paper is to analyze the spatial-temporal variability of ice edge location in the Eastern Arctic seas of Russia (the Laptev, East-Siberian and Chukchi Seas) in late summer (August-September) during the period from 1981 to 2018, as well as to estimate the multi-year changes taking place in the 21st century. The special archive containing the information on latitude position of ice edge at the meridians between the Severnaya Zemlya Archipelago and Alaska was developed; the data of AARI (Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute) specialized observations and satellite images were used.
The inter-annual variability of ice edge position in the total area shows that the entire period 1981–2018 consists of two significantly different parts: the interval from 1981 to 2001 with southern ice edge position (mean latitude in September comprised 74,9° N), and the interval from 2002 to 2018 with northern ice edge position (mean latitude 78,7° N). The difference between the extreme values of ice edge latitude at some meridians reached 9 degrees of latitude (about 1000 km).
During the period from 2002 to 2018, the area of mostly active northward displacement of ice edge moved generally from east to west. From 2002 to 2010, the maximum northward displacement of ice edge was observed in the East-Siberian and Chukchi Seas; in 2007 the extreme northern position of ice edge was registered to the east of the New Siberia Archipelago (mean latitude comprised 84,0° N). However, during 2011–2018, the maximum northward displacement of ice edge was observed in the Laptev Sea; in 2014 the extreme northern position of ice edge was registered to the west of the New Siberia Archipelago (mean latitude comprised 84,5° N).
Typologically, the displacement of ice edge from south to north during the period from 2001–2018 looks like a wave; its crest and sole drift from the Chukchi Sea toward the Laptev Sea. Within the period from 2007 to 2010, the ice edge displacement reached its maximum, and after this, during 2011–2015, the reverse motion from north to south began. One can forecast that within the nearest coming years the ice edge oscillatory southward drift would continue, and by the end of 2020-s one can expect the ice edge to have the position typical for the period 2002–2006.
The author declares that he has no competing interests.
The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.