aariПроблемы Арктики и АнтарктикиArctic and Antarctic Research0555-26482618-6713Государственный научный центр Российской Федерации Арктический и антарктический научно-исследовательский институт10.30758/0555-2648-2023-69-4-464-485aari-575Research ArticleМЕТЕОРОЛОГИЯ И КЛИМАТОЛОГИЯMETEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGYИзменения параметров экстремальных температурных событий западной части Российской Арктики по данным реанализов ERA5 и MERRA-2 в 1980–2022 гг.Changes in the parameters of extreme temperature events in the western part of the Russian Arctic according to ERA5 and MERRA-2 reanalyses in 1980–2022https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2435-7886СерыхИ. В.SerykhI. V.

Москва

 

Moscow

iserykh@ocean.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7441-5055КостянойА. Г.KostianoyA. G.

Москва

 

Moscow

Институт океанологии им. П.П. Ширшова РАНРоссияShirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of SciencesRussian FederationИнститут океанологии им. П.П. Ширшова РАН; Геофизический центр РАН; Московский университет им. С.Ю. ВиттеРоссияShirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences; Geophysical Center, Russian Academy of Sciences; S.Yu. Witte Moscow UniversityRussian Federation202309122023694464485Copyright © Серых И.В., Костяной А.Г., 20232023Серых И.В., Костяной А.Г.Serykh I.V., Kostianoy A.G.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.aaresearch.science/jour/article/view/575

Исследованы среднесуточные аномалии температуры воздуха на высоте 2 метра от поверхности (ТВП) в регионе западной части Российской Арктики (60–75° с. ш., 30–85° в. д.) по данным реанализов ERA5 и MERRA-2 за период 1980–2022 гг. Рассчитаны их среднеквадратические отклонения и распределение их среднего количества за год. Показано, что экстремальные события с положительными аномалиями ТВП усиливаются, удлиняются и учащаются над частью акваторий Баренцева, Карского и Белого морей, а также над некоторыми участками суши исследуемого региона. При этом амплитуда, продолжительность и число экстремальные событий с отрицательными аномалиями ТВП в этих районах сокращаются.

The air temperature in the Arctic zone of Russia is increasing at a rate of 0.71 °C per decade, which is three times faster than the global average. The warming of climate is accompanied by an increase in its extremeness, which leads to an increase in the number of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena. The most significant changes occurred in the statistics of large-scale summer heat waves in European Russia. One of the most important goals in studying current climate changes is to study the frequency of extreme hydrometeorological phenomena, in particular, heat or cold waves. In this paper, we investigate the average daily anomalies relative to the annual variation of air temperature at a height of 2 meters from the surface in the region of the western part of the Russian Arctic (60°–75° N, 30°–85° E), according to ERA5 and MERRA-2 atmospheric reanalyses for the period 1980–2022. Their root-mean-square deviations and the distribution of their average number per year are calculated. We have plotted the fields of average values and the rate of changes in the amplitude, duration and number of anomalous temperature events which exceed two standard deviations in the study region. Areas of increase and decrease in the amplitude, duration and number of extreme events, both with positive and negative temperature anomalies, are displayed. In general, it can be concluded that, on average, the amplitudes of positive extreme air temperature anomalies in the study area slightly increase. The duration of positive extreme anomalies is growing everywhere at a rate of 0.2 days per 10 years. The duration of negative extreme anomalies slightly decreases. The number of events with negative extreme anomalies has been decreasing at a rate of –0.5 to –3 events per year for 10 years, while the number of events with positive extreme anomalies has been increasing from 0.1 to 1 events per year for 10 years.

The results obtained significantly expand our knowledge of the spatiotemporal features of the ongoing changes in the extreme climate of the western part of the Russian Arctic, which is of paramount importance for the analysis and forecasting of the development of natural and socio-economic systems in the region under study.

аномалии температурыБаренцево мореБелое мореКарское морепотепление климатасеверо-запад Россиитемпература воздухаэкстремальные событияair temperatureBarents Seaclimate warmingextreme eventsKara SeaNorthwest Russiatemperature anomaliesWhite SeaИ.В. Серых выполнил данное исследование в рамках государственного задания Института океанологии им. П.П. Ширшова РАН по теме № FMWE-2021-0003 «Крупномасштабные, волновые и вихревые океанские процессы и роль океана в формировании климата: междекадная эволюция циркуляции, гидрофизических полей океана и потоков на границе океан-атмосфера в условиях меняющегося климата». А.Г. Костяной выполнил данное исследование в рамках проекта РНФ № 21-77-30010 «Системный анализ динамики геофизических процессов в российской Арктике и их воздействие на развитие и функционирование инфраструктуры железнодорожного транспорта» (2021–2024 гг.). Авторы выражают свою благодарность двум анонимным рецензентам за их внимание к работе, их благожелательную критику и сделанные замечания, учет которых позволил коренным образом повысить качество работы.I.V. Serykh carried out this study within the Federal assignment to the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS on the Project N FMWE-2021-0003 “Large-scale, wave and eddy ocean processes and the role of the ocean in climate formation: interdecadal evolution of circulation, ocean hydrophysical fields and flows at the ocean-atmosphere boundary in a changing climate”. A.G. Kostianoy carried out this study in the framework of the Russian Science Foundation Project N 21-77-30010 “System analysis of the dynamics of geophysical processes in the Russian Arctic and their impact on the development and functioning of the railway transport infrastructure” (2021–2024). 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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.