aariПроблемы Арктики и АнтарктикиArctic and Antarctic Research0555-26482618-6713Государственный научный центр Российской Федерации Арктический и антарктический научно-исследовательский институт10.30758/0555-2648-2026-72-1-19-34aari-789Research ArticleОКЕАНОЛОГИЯOCEANOLOGYВедущие моды крупномасштабной изменчивости температуры поверхности океана в приатлантическом секторе АрктикиLeading modes of the sea surface temperature large-scale variability in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic.https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8517-1057ЧернявскаяЕ. А.CherniavskaiaE. A.eachernyvskaya@aari.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0762-5188ЛисН. А.LisN. A.СоколовА. А.SokolovA. A.https://orcid.org/0009-0001-9492-2174ТимоховЛ. А.TimokhovL. A.ГНЦ РФ Арктический и антарктический научно-исследовательский институтРоссияState Scientific Center of the Russian Federation Arctic and Antarctic Research InstituteRussian Federation2026010420267211934Copyright © Чернявская Е.А., Лис Н.А., Соколов А.А., Тимохов Л.А., 20262026Чернявская Е.А., Лис Н.А., Соколов А.А., Тимохов Л.А.Cherniavskaia E.A., Lis N.A., Sokolov A.A., Timokhov L.A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.aaresearch.science/jour/article/view/789

Приатлантический сектор Арктики является критически важным регионом трансформации атлантических вод и арктического климата. В работе выполнен анализ крупномасштабной изменчивости температуры поверхности океана (ТПО) в Норвежском, Гренландском и Баренцевом морях за период 1950–2024 гг. на основе данных реанализа ERA5 с применением метода эмпирических ортогональных функций (ЭОФ). Выделены три ведущие моды, суммарно объясняющие 55,8 % общей дисперсии поля ТПО. Первая мода (25 % дисперсии) демонстрирует дипольную пространственную структуру, разделяющую исследуемый район на западную и восточную части и являющуюся индикатором интенсивности адвективного переноса атлантических вод. Вторая мода (16,4 % дисперсии) характеризуется широтноориентированной дипольной структурой, модулируя поле аномалий ТПО под влиянием изменений интенсивности Атлантической меридиональной опрокидывающейся циркуляции (АМОЦ) и Арктической осцилляции. Пространственное распределение третьей моды (14,4 % дисперсии) отличается обширной положительной аномалией в западной части акватории, связанной с процессами глубокой конвекции. Выявленные моды количественно описывают ведущие режимы перераспределения тепла в приатлантическом секторе Арктики и их связь с крупномасштабной атмосферной циркуляцией. Полученные результаты имеют ключевое значение для понимания механизмов регионального климатического отклика на глобальные изменения.

The study presents an analysis of the large-scale spatiotemporal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic, a key region for the transformation of Atlantic waters and heat exchange between the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. To achieve this, the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) decomposition method was applied to the original monthly mean SST anomalies from the ERA5 reanalysis over the period 1950–2024. Three leading modes have been identified, collectively accounting for 55,8 % of the total SST variance. The first mode (25 % of the variance) exhibits a spatial dipole structure, separating the study area into western and eastern parts. It reflects the mechanism of intensified advection of Atlantic waters northward and eastward, correlating with the heat flux through Fram Strait (R = 0.42) and the Arctic Dipole index (R = 0.27). The second mode (16,4 % of the variance) is characterized by a latitude-oriented dipole structure. Its temporal evolution and significant correlation (R = 0.58) with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) index reflect the influence of low-frequency oceanic variability. The third mode (14,4 % of the variance) exhibits a complex structure with a positive anomaly in the western and central parts of the basin. It   is interpreted by the authors as an indicator of deep convection intensity in the Greenland Sea, a finding supported by its correlation with temperature in the 500–1750 m layer (R = –0.48). It is established that the spatial structures identified are formed under the combined influence of advective heat transport by Atlantic waters, multi-decadal variability in the intensity of the AMOC, and atmospheric circulation patterns associated with the Arctic Dipole and the Arctic Oscillation. The results obtained quantitatively determine the contribution of the leading modes to the total SST variability in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic, which is essential for understanding the regional climate response to global changes and for refining the mechanisms of Arctic amplification.

температура поверхности океанаГренландское мореНорвежское мореБаренцево мореСеверо-Европейский бассейнэмпирические ортогональные функцииатлантические водыглубинная конвекцияатмосферная циркуляциятермохалинная циркуляцияsea surface temperatureNorwegian SeaGreenland SeaBarents SeaNorth European Basinempirical orthogonal functionsAtlantic waterdeep convectionatmospheric circulationthermohaline circulationИсследование выполнено за счет гранта Российского научного фонда № 24-27-00221, https://rscf.ru/project/24-27-00221/.The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation, grant No. 24-27-00221, https://rscf.ru/project/24-27-00221/.ReferencesReynolds R.W., Smith T.M., Liu C., Chelton D.B., Casey K.S., Schlax M.G. Daily high resolution-blended analyses for sea surface temperature. J. Clim. 2007;20:5473–5496. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1824.1Reynolds R.W., Smith T.M., Liu C., Chelton D.B., Casey K.S., Schlax M.G. Daily high resolution-blended analyses for sea surface temperature. 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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.