Method of long-range ice drift forecast in the Arctic basin

Abstract

Based on the data of automatic “Argos” buoys, the frequency of occurrence of the monthly fields of ice drift velocity with presence of the anticyclonic eddy in them was calculated for the annual ice cycles. It was determined that at close values of the frequency of occurrence for different years, the drift velocity fields are also identical to each other in many aspects. On this basis the total number of years with initial data is divided into three groups by the value of the frequency of occurrence. The prognostic calculation of ice motion is performed by the monthly fields of the group the values of the frequency of occurrence of which will correspond to a greater extent to the frequency of occurrence of the current annual ice cycle. The article presents information on the basis of which the choice of the analogous group of years is presented. Technology of the prognostic ice motion calculation by the monthly drift velocity fields for the chosen analogous years is given. The results of determination of the skill score and efficiency of the method obtained taking into account the ellipse of permissible error are presented.