A method for modeling of the consequences of super-continuous accidents on oil production objects in the Arctic region
https://doi.org/10.30758/0555-2648-2018-64-4-439-454
Abstract
The elimination of the oil spill at the DWH (Deep-Water Horizon) well in the Gulf of Mexico took place in almost ideal hydrometeorological conditions, which did not create serious difficulties for the operation of the response forces and means. There is a problem of assessing the possible consequences of an accident of this scale in the Arctic conditions. The simulation method of a long-lasting oil spill in the ice infested region is considered. A new model for the spreading of an elementary spill (ES) is described. A total oil spill is constructed as superposition of a number of an elementary spill. Taking into account the transport of oil by drifting ice, the potential impact of spills on vulnerable areas in the sea and coasts can reach distance of hundreds and thousands of kilometers. The distribution of ES on the surface of ice-free water is limited by the lifetime, depending on the properties of oil and regional hydro-meteorological conditions and elongated by the duration of the ice capture. The paper presents examples of estimating the lifetime of an ongoing oil spill in open water conditions based on the analysis of wind conditions in the area of interest by long-term series of meteorological reanalysis. On the basis of the analysis, an efficient computational algorithm to estimate the probability of a long-lasting oil spills impact on specially protected natural areas is constructed.
Supporting agencies: RFBR grants № 18-07-00373 and № 18-07-01001.
About the Authors
S. N. Zatsepa
Zubov State Oceanographic Institute
Russian Federation
Moscow
Russian Federation
Moscow
A. A. Ivchenko
Zubov State Oceanographic Institute
Russian Federation
Moscow
Russian Federation
Moscow
V. V. Solbakov
Federal Research Center «Information and Management» RAS
Russian Federation
Moscow
Russian Federation
Moscow
V. V. Stanovoy
State Scientific Center of the Russian Federation Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute
Russian Federation
St. Petersburg
Russian Federation
St. Petersburg
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Review
For citations:
Zatsepa S.N., Ivchenko A.A., Solbakov V.V., Stanovoy V.V. A method for modeling of the consequences of super-continuous accidents on oil production objects in the Arctic region. Arctic and Antarctic Research. 2018;64(4):439-454. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.30758/0555-2648-2018-64-4-439-454
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