Seasonal forecast of sea ice extent in the Barents sea
https://doi.org/10.30758/0555-2648-2019-65-1-5-14
Abstract
Earlier, the authors established a close relationship between the temperature of water coming from the North Atlantic and the sea ice extent (SIE) in the Barents Sea, which accounts for up to 75 % of the inter-annual variability of the monthly SIE from January to June. In turn, temperature variations of the incoming Atlantic water are affected from anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) in the low latitudes of the North Atlantic. These dependences served as the basis for the development of a forecast method. The empirical orthogonal functions decomposition of the SIE set from January to June for 1979–2014 was used. The main component of decomposition reflects 83 % of the inter-annual variability of SIE from January to June. Regression model of forecast is based on the relation of the main component with SST anomalies taking into account the delay. Comparison of prognostic and actual values of the climatic component for each of the 6 months showed the correctness of forecasts with a lead time of 27 to 32 months is 83 %, and for the prediction of the initial values of SIE 79 %. Appealing to the second predictor — SST anomalies in the Norwegian Sea allowed to improve the quality of the forecast of the observed values of SIE. At the same time, the forecast advance time was reduced to 9–14 months.
Supporting agencies: The article was prepared using the results of the RFBR grant 18-05-00334.
About the Authors
N. I. Glok
State Scientific Center of the Russian Federation Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
G. V. Alekseev
State Scientific Center of the Russian Federation Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
A. E. Vyazilova
State Scientific Center of the Russian Federation Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
References
1. AlekseevG.V., GlokN.I., SmirnovA.V., VyazilovaA.E. The influence of the North Atlantic on climate variations in the Barents Sea and their predictability. Meteorologiya i gidrologiya. Meteorology and Hydrology. 2016, 8: 38–56. [In Russian].
2. Vise V.Iu. The reasons of Arctic warming. Sovetskaya Arktika. Soviet Arctic. 1937, 1: 1–7. [In Russian].
3. Zakharov V.F. Morskie l’dy v klimaticheskoj sisteme. Sea ice in the climate system. St. Petersburg: Gigrometeoizdat, 1996: 213 p. [In Russian].
4. Zolotokrylin A.N., Titkova T.B., Mikhailov A.Y. Climatic variations of the Arctic front and the Barents sea ice cover in winter time. Led i sneg. Ice and Snow. 2014, 54, 1: 85–90. [In Russian].
5. Mironov E.U. Ledovye uslovija v Grenlandskom i Barencevom moryah i ih dolgosrochnyj prognoz. Ice conditions in the Greenland and Barents Seas and their long-range forecasting. St. Petersburg: AARI, 2004: 320 p. [In Russian].
6. SemenovV.A., MokhovI.I., Latif M. The role of the boundaries of sea ice and sea surface temperature in regional climate changes in Eurasia over the last decade. Izvestiya Akademii Nauk. Fizika atmosfery i okeana. Proc. of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Physics of Atmosphere and Ocean. 2012, 48, 4: 403–421. [In Russian].
7. Chen H.W., Zhang Q., Körnich H., Chen D. The surface air temperature anomalies over the Barents Sea are closely associated with this mode of climate variability. Arctic: The Barents Oscillation. Geophys. Research Letters. 2013, 40: 2856–2861.
8. Inoue J., Hori M.E., Takaya K. The role of Barents sea ice in the wintertime cyclone track and emergence of a warm-Arctic cold-Siberian anomaly. Journ. of Climate. 2012, 25, 7: 2561–2568.
9. Levitus S., Matishov G., Seidov D., Smolyar I. Barents Sea multidecadal variability. Geophys. Research Letters. 2009, 36 (L19604): 1–5.
10. Liptak J., Strong C. The Winter Atmospheric Response to Sea Ice Anomalies in the Barents Sea. Journ. of Climate. 2014, 27: 914–924.
11. Lind S., Ingvaldsen R.B., Furevik T. Arctic warming hotspot in the northern Barents Sea linked to declining sea-ice import. Nature Climate Change. 2018, 8: 634–639.
12. Petoukhov V., Semenov V. A. A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. Journ. of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 2010, 115: D21111.
13. Semenov V.A. Influence of oceanic inflow to the Barents Sea on climate variability in the Arctic region. Doklady Akademii Nauk. Proc. of the Academy of Sciences. 2008, 418, 1: 106–109. [In Russian].
14. Sandø A.B., Gao Y., Langehaug H.R. Poleward ocean heat transports, sea ice processes, and Arctic sea ice variability in NorESM1-M simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 2014, 119, 3: 2095–2108.
15. Smedsrud L.H.,Esau I., Ingvaldsen R.B., Eldevik T., Haugan P.M., Li C., Lien V.S., Olsen A., Omar A.M., Risebrobakken B., Sandø A.B., Semenov V.A., Sorokina S.A. The role of the Barents sea in the Arctic climate system. Reviews of Geophysics. 2013, 51: 415–449.
16. Ivanova D.P., McClean J.L., Hunke E.C. Interaction of ocean temperature advection, surface heat fluxes and sea ice in the marginal ice zone during the North Atlantic Oscillation in the 1990s: A modeling study. Journ. of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 2012, 117: C02031.
17. Schlichtholz P., Houssais M.N. Forcing of oceanic heat anomalies by air-sea interactions in the Nordic Seas area. Journ. of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 2011, 116: C01006.
18. Bengtsson L., Semenov V.A., Johannessen O.M. The early twentieth-century warming in the arctic — A possible mechanism. Journ. of Climate. 2004, 17: 4045–4057.
19. Semenov V.A., Martin T., Behrens L.K., Latif M. Arctic sea ice area in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate model ensembles – variability and change. The Cryosphere Discussions. 2015, 9, 1: 1077–1131.
20. Semenov V.A., Martin T., Behrens L.K., Latif M., Astafieva E.S. Arctic sea ice area changes in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models’ ensembles. Led i sneg. Ice and Snow. 2017, 57, 1: 77–107. [In Russian].
21. Pavlova T.V., Katsov V.M., Meleshko V.P., Shkolnik I. M., Govorkova V.A., Nadezhina E.D. A new generation of climate models. Trudy GGO im. A. I. Voeykova. Proceedings of Voeikov Main Geophisical Observatory. 2014, 575: 5–64. [In Russian].
22. Karsakov A.L. Okeanograficheskie issledovanija na razreze «Kol’skij meridian» v Barencevom more za period 1900–2008 gg. Oceanographic Investigations along the Kola Section in the Barents Sea in 1900–2008. Murmansk: PINRO Press, 2009: 139 p. [In Russian].
23. Met Office Hadley Centre observations datasets. Available at: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ hadobs/hadisst/ (accessed 24.07.2018)
24. Alekseev G.V., Kuzmina S.I., Glok N.I., Vyazilova A.E., Ivanov N.E., Smirnov A.V. Influence of Atlantic on the warming and reduction of sea ice in the Arctic. Led i sneg. Ice and Snow. 2017, 57, 3: 381–390. [In Russian].
Review
For citations:
Glok N.I., Alekseev G.V., Vyazilova A.E. Seasonal forecast of sea ice extent in the Barents sea. Arctic and Antarctic Research. 2019;65(1):5-14. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.30758/0555-2648-2019-65-1-5-14
Views:
1089
Email this article 
