Climatic changes of seasonal and inter-annual variability of the ice cover of the Greenland and Barents Seas
https://doi.org/10.30758/0555-2648-2019-65-2-148-168
Abstract
The structure of the long-period variability of the ice cover of the Barents and Greenland Seas over a long series of observations from 1930 to 2017 is analyzed. In both seas, there is a significant negative linear trend of ice cover for both the winter and summer seasons. Average for the period of 1950–2016 intra-annual changes in ice coverings demonstrate the conjugacy of the seasonal cycles of the Greenland and Barents Seas, but with certain differences. Three homogeneous groups with a similar character of intra-annual changes in the ice area are identified for each sea. Identified succession in a state of ice cover for 2 years.
The conjugacy of changes in the average decadal values of sea ice cover in April and August with the average decadal indices of atmospheric circulation AO, AD, PNA, NAO and the index of the thermal state of the North Atlantic AMO is shown. Spectral analysis of the winter and summer ice cover of the Greenland and Barents Seas for the period 1930–2016 confirmed earlier received cyclical fluctuations of 22, 9–11 and 6–7 years.
Cross-correlation analysis established a close relationship between the longitudinal changes in the ice cover and the average annual values of the following astrogeophysical parameters, the longitude coordinate of the Earth pole position Y, the Earth axis nutation indices dEps and dPsi, the Earth rotation speed index lod (length of day), Sun solar activity index (annual Wolf number) , the average for six months, the distance from the Sun to Earth in the summer SX-III and the winter SX-III periods. Significant correlation coefficients are quite large (R = |0,30| – |0,56|) for both seas, comparable to the correlation coefficients between the ice cover and average annual air temperature T, show the reality of the ice cover mediated reaction to changes in astrophysical factors. Statistical equations relating the sea ice cover to hydrometeorological and astrogeophysical factors were obtained by multiple correlation. The overall correlation coefficient varies from R = 0,80 to R = 0,87 AT. The Greenland Sea, the share of astrogeophysical factors in the long-term changes in the ice cover of both the winter and summer seasons exceeded the contribution of hydrometeorological factors by 3–4 times. In the Barents Sea, the contribution to the total dispersion of astrogeophysical factors in the winter period is somewhat less than that of hydrometeorological factors, and in the summer period they exceed only 1.4 times. The authors’ approach opens up the possibility of using it to obtain statistical equations for the diagnosis and forecast of long-term and climatic changes in sea-ice cover.
Keywords
Barents Sea,
Greenland Sea,
classification of seasonal cycles,
ice cover,
seasonal and inter-annual variability
Supporting agencies: This work was funded by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation (the unique identifier of the project — RFMEFI61617X0076).
About the Authors
L. A. Timokhov
State Scientific Center of the Russian Federation Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
St. Petersburg
N. A. Vyazigina
State Scientific Center of the Russian Federation Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
St. Petersburg
E. U. Mironov
State Scientific Center of the Russian Federation Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
St. Petersburg
A. V. Yulin
State Scientific Center of the Russian Federation Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
St. Petersburg
References
1. Zakharov V.F. L’dy Arktiki i sovremennye prirodnye protsessy. Arctic ice and modern natural processes. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1976: 96 p. [In Russian].
2. Zubakin G.K. Krupnomasshtabnaia izmenchivost’ sostoianiia ledianogo pokrova morei SeveroEvropeiskogo basseina. Large-scale variability of the state of the ice cover of the seas of the North European Basin. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1987: 160 p. [In Russian].
3. Mironov E.U. Ledovye usloviia v Grenlandskom i Barentsevom moriakh i ikh dolgosrochnyi prognoz. Ice conditions in the Greenland and Barents Seas and their long-term forecast. St. Petersburg: AARI, 2004: 319 p. [In Russian].
4. Nikiforov EG, Shpayher A.O. Zakonomernosti formirovaniia krupnomasshtabnykh kolebanii gidrologicheskogo rezhima Severnogo Ledovitogo okeana. Patterns of formation of large-scale fluctuations of the hydrological regime of the Arctic Ocean. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1980: 269 p. [In Russian].
5. Wiese V.Yu. Klimat morei Sovetskoi Arktiki.Climate of the Seas of the Soviet Arctic, Moscow; Leningrad: Glavsevmorput Publishing, 1940: 124 p. [In Russian].
6. Wiese V.Yu. Kolebaniia solnechnoi aktivnosti i ledovitosti poliarnykh morei. Doklady iubileinoi sessii Arkticheskogo instituta. Oscillations of solar activity and ice cover of polar seas. Reports of the jubilee session of the Arctic Institute, Leningrad: Glavsevmorput Publishing, 1944: 7 p. [In Russian].
7. Wiese V.Yu. Osnovy dolgosrochnykh ledovykh prognozov.Fundamentals of long-term ice forecasts, Moscow: Glavsevmorput Publishing, 1944: 274 p. [In Russian].
8. Lebedev A.A. Large-scale anomalies of the ice cover of the North European Basin. Trudy Arkticheskogo i Antarkticheskogo nauchno-issledovatel’skogo instituta. Proc. of AARI. 1994, 432: 63–83. [In Russian].
9. Lebedev A.A., Uralov N.S. Forecasting the ice coverness of the Greenland Sea due to the peculiarities of the thermal state of the Atlantic Ocean and atmospheric circulation. Problemy Arktiki i Antarktiki. Problems of Arctic and Antarctic. 1977, 50: 36–39. [In Russian].
10. Lebedev A.A. Features of the structure and regularities of the long-term variability of the ice cover of the North Atlantic seas. Trudy Arkticheskogo i Antarkticheskogo nauchno-issledovatel’skogo instituta.Proc. of AARI. 1985, 396: 122–133. [In Russian].
11. Tregubova M.V., Prokofyev O.M., Mukhina A.V. The long-term dynamics of the ice cover of the Greenland Sea in the context of current climate change. Simvol nauki. Symbol of Science. 2015, 5: 265–267. [In Russian].
12. Matishov G.G., Dzhenyuk S.L., Denisov V.V., Zhichkin A.P., Moiseev D.V. Taking into account the century-old climate dynamics of the Barents Sea when planning maritime activities. Trudy Kol’skogo nauchnogo tsentra RAN. Seriia «Okeanologiia». Proceedings of the Kola Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Series “Oceanology”. 2013, 1 (14): 56–71. [In Russian].
13. Zhichkin A.P. Dynamics of interannual and seasonal anomalies in the ice cover of the Barents and Kara seas. Vestnik Kolskogo nauchnogo centra RAN. Bulletin of the Kola Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2015, 1 (20): 55–64. [In Russian].
14. Krasheninnikova S.B., Krasheninnikova M.A. Causes and features of the long-term variability of the ice cover of the Barents Sea.Led i sneg.Ice and Snow. 2019, 59, 1: 112–122. doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2019-1-112-122 [In Russian].
15. Timokhov L.А., Vyazigina N.A., Mironov E.U., Popov A.V. Seasonal and inter-annual variability of the ice cover in the Greenland Sea. Led i sneg. Ice and Snow. 2018, 58 (1): 127–134. https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2018-1-127-134 [In Russian].
16. Unified system of information about the situation in the oceans. Available at: http://www.aari.ru/projects/ECIMO/index.php (accessed 13.06.2019).
17. Thompson D.W.J., Wallace J.M. The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophysical Research Letters. 1998, 25, 9: 1297–1300. doi:10.1029/98GL00950.
18. Janout M., AksenovY., Hölemann J., Rabe B., Schauer U., Polyakov I., Bacon S., Coward A., Karcher M., Lenn Y. D., Kassens H., Timokhov L. Kara Sea freshwater transport through Vilkitsky Strait: Variability, forcing and further pathways toward the western Arctic Ocean from a model and observations. Geophysical Research Letters. 2016, 43(1): 264–272. doi 10.1002/2015GL066565.
19. Teoriia veroiatnostei i matematicheskaia statistika.Theory of Probability and Mathematical Statistics. Available at: http://statistica.ru/theory/ (accessed 13.06.2019).
20. Atlas Arktiki. Atlas of the Arctic. Moscow: Central Directorate for Geodesy and Cartography, 1985: 204 p. [In Russian].
21. Dese C., Teng H. Evolution of the Arctic Sea ice concentration trends, 1979–2007. Geophysical Research Letters. 2008, 35. L02504, doi: 10.1029/2007GL032023.
22. Levitus S., Matishov G., Seidov D., Smolyar I. Barents Sea multidecadal variability. Geophysical Research Letters. 2009, 36. L19604. doi:10.1029/2009GL039847.
23. Sorteber. A., Kvingedal B. Atmospheric for ice coverings. Journal of Climate, 2006. 19: 4772–4784.
24. Zhang X., Sorteber A., Zhang J., Gerdes R., Comiso J.C. Recent radical shifts of atmospheric circulations and rapid changes in Arctic climate system. Geophysical Research Letters. 2008, 35. L22701, doi: 10.1029/2008GL035607.
25. Frolov I.E., Gudkovich Z.M., Karklin V.P., Kovalev E.G., Smolyanitsky V.M. Nauchnye issledovaniia v Arktike. T. 2. Klimaticheskie izmeneniia ledianogo pokrova Evraziiskogo shel’fa. Scientific research in the Arctic. V. 2. Climatic changes in the ice cover of the Eurasian shelf. St. Petersburg: Science, 2007: 135 p. [In Russian].
26. Maksimov I.V. Geofizicheskie sily i vody okeana. Geophysical forces and ocean waters. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1970: 447 p. [In Russian].
27. Sleptsov-Shevlevich B.A., Bayarinov A.M. Solnechnyi veter, vrashchenie Zemli i klimat. Solar wind, Earth’s rotation and climate. St. Petersburg, 2002: 159 p. [In Russian].
28. Medvedev I.P., Kulikov E.A., Rabinovich A.B., Lapshin V.B. Chandler beats and polar tide in the North and Baltic seas. Geliogeofizicheskie issledovaniia. Heliogeophysical studies issue. 2018, 18: 9–17. [In Russian].
Review
For citations:
Timokhov L.A., Vyazigina N.A., Mironov E.U., Yulin A.V. Climatic changes of seasonal and inter-annual variability of the ice cover of the Greenland and Barents Seas. Arctic and Antarctic Research. 2019;65(2):148-168. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.30758/0555-2648-2019-65-2-148-168
Views:
1077
Email this article 
