Cyclical structure and the prerequisites for forecasting of the duration of Arctic invasions for the next decade
https://doi.org/10.30758/0555-2648-2020-66-2-144-161
Abstract
The Duration of Arctic Invasions (DAI) is known to be connected with various climatological indexes. This paper presents the results of a study of DAI changes in various sectors of the Northern Hemisphere from 1899 to 2017. To this end, we used the classification of circulating mechanisms of the Northern Hemisphere by B.L. Dzerdzeevsky.
The basic attention was paid to the study of the trend component of the temporal variability of the duration of Arctic invasions; to the assessment of long-period cyclic fluctuations of the DAI; and to the forecasting the duration of Arctic invasions over the next decade in the Northern Hemisphere sectors.
To analyze the components of the change in the duration of Arctic invasions and its forecast, we used: a description of the initial data using a linear trend, approximation of time series by the Savitsky-Golay method, spectral analysis and spectral-time analysis, as well as the component-harmonic method.
We found a significant increase in the duration of Arctic invasions in the Pacific and Atlantic sectors and its significant decline in the European and American sectors. In deviations from the trend, a powerful quasi-fifty-year component for five sectors is clearly manifested; whereas in the European sector the deviation is rather weak and quasi-thirty-year fluctuations dominate here. What is more, quasi-20-year fluctuations in the variability of DAI were revealed, we predict DAI estimates for the next 10 years by combining the trend and two quasi-cyclic fluctuations. According to our forecast an increase in the duration of Arctic invasions will occur from 2022 in the European sector. In the Atlantic sector, DAI growth will begin in 2019 and continue until 2023, and then DAI will fall. In other sectors, there will be a decrease in the duration of Arctic invasions starting from 2016. The decrease in American sector starts only from 2022.
Supporting agencies: The study was supported by the project 1.06 in the framework of the State Program of Scientific Research “Environmental Management and Ecology” for 2016–2020.
About the Authors
V. F. Loginov
Institute for Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus
Belarus
Belarus
Vladimir F. Loginov
Minsk
S. A. Lysenko
Institute for Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus
Belarus
Belarus
Sergey A. Lysenko
Minsk
Yu. A. Brovka
Institute for Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus
Belarus
Belarus
Yuliya A. Brovka
Minsk
V. S. Mikutsky
Institute for Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus
Belarus
Belarus
Vladimir S. Mikutsky
Minsk
References
1. Kononova N.K. Klassifikatsiia tsirkuliatsionnykh mekhanizmov Severnogo polushariia po B.L. Dzerdzeevskomu. Classification of circulation mechanisms of the Northern hemisphere by B.L. Dzerdzeevsky. Moscow: Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of geography, 2009: 370 p. [In Russian].
2. Kononova N.K. Types of global circulation of the atmosphere: the results of monitoring and retrospective evaluation for 1899–2017 years. Fundamental’naia i prikladnaia klimatologiia. Fundamental and applied climatology. 2018, 3: 108–123. [In Russian].
3. Kholoptsev A.V., Semenov V.A., Kononova N.K. Long Arctic invasion and the El Niño–southern oscillation. Izvestiia Rossiiskoi Akademii nauk. Seriia Geograficheskaia. News of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Geographic series. 2018, 4: 22–32. [In Russian].
4. Frolov I.E., Gudkovich Z.M., Karklin V.P., Smolianitskii V.M. Materialy Soveta-seminara pri Prezidente Rossiiskoi akademii nauk “Vozmozhnosti predotvrashcheniia izmeneniia klimata i ego negativnykh posledstvii. Problema Kiotskogo protokola”. Climatic variations of the ice cover area in the Eurasian Arctic and their expected changes in the XXI century. Proceedings of the Council-seminar under the President of the Russian Academy of Sciences “Opportunities to prevent climate change and its adverse effects. The problem of the Kyoto Protocol”. Moscow: Nauka, 2006, 353–370. [In Russian].
5. Kholoptsev A.V., Kononova N.K., Timoshenko T.Iu. Arctic blocking and surface temperatures in the European territory of Russia. Zhizn’ Zemli. Earth life. 2017, 39, 1: 20–32. [In Russian].
6. Kholoptsev A.V., Katunina E.N., Timoshenko T.Iu. Continued Arctic invasions in the Atlantic sector and precipitation in Crimea. Uchenye zapiski Krymskogo federal’nogo universiteta im. V.I. Vernadskogo. Geografiia. Geologiia. Scientific notes of the Crimean Federal University named after V.I. Vernadsky. Geography. Geology. 2017, 3 (69), 2: 251–267. [In Russian].
7. Kholoptsev A.V., Podporin S.A., Kurochkin L.E. Arctic invasions and weather conditions in the Azov-Black Sea region. Uchenye zapiski Krymskogo federal’nogo universiteta im. V.I. Vernadskogo. Geografiia. Geologiia. Scientific notes of the Crimean Federal University named after V.I. Vernadsky. Geography. Geology. 2019, 5 (71), 2: 322–331. [In Russian].
8. Dzerdzeevskii B.L., Kurganskaia V.M., Vitvitskaia Z.M. Tipizatsiia tsirkuliatsionnykh mekhanizmov v Severnom polusharii i kharakteristiki sinopticheskikh sezonov. Typification of circulation mechanisms in the Northern hemisphere and characteristics of synoptic seasons. Proceedings of the research institution of the Main Department of hydrometeorological service of the Council of Ministers of the USSR. Ser. 2. Synoptic meteorology. V. 21. Moscow, Leningrad: Hydrometeoizdat, 1946: 80 p. [In Russian].
9. Polonskii A.B. Rol’ okeana v izmeneniiakh klimata. The role of the ocean in climate change. Kiev: Naukova dumka, 2008: 183 p. [In Russian].
10. Atlas vremennykh variatsii prirodnykh, antropogennykh i sotsial’nykh protsessov. Atlas of temporal variations of natural, anthropogenic and social processes. V. 3. Natural and social spheres as part of the environment and as objects of influence. Moscow: Ianus–K, 2002: 652 p. [In Russian].
11. StatSoft (Elektronnyi resurs). URL: http://statsoft.ru/company/. StatSoft (Electronic resource). [In Russian]. Available at: http://statsoft.ru/company/ (accessed 18.10.2019).
12. Rubashev B.M. Problemy solnechnoi aktivnosti. Problems of solar activity. Moscow; Leningrad: Nauka, 1964: 362 p. [In Russian].
13. German Dzh.R., Goldberg R.A. Solntse, pogoda i klimat. The sun, weather and climate. Leningrad: Hydrometeoizdat, 1981: 320 p. [In Russian].
14. Shuleikin V.V. Fizika moria. Physics of the sea. Moscow: Nauka, 1968: 1083 p. [In Russian].
15. Ugriumov A.I. Teplovoi rezhim okeana i dolgosrochnye prognozy pogody. Thermal mode of ocean and long-term weather forecasts. Leningrad: Hydrometeoizdat, 1981: 176 p. [In Russian].
16. Iakovleva N.I. Empirical studies of global-scale self-oscillating processes in the earth’s hydrosphere and atmosphere. Problemy Arktiki i Antarktiki. Problems of Arctic and Antarctic. 1974, 43–44: 37–47. [In Russian].
17. Scafetta N. A shared frequency set between the historical mid-latitude aurora records and the global surface temperature. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. 2012, 74: 145–163.
18. Maksimov N.V. Geofizicheskie sily i vody okeana. Geophysical forces and ocean waters. Leningrad: Hydrometeoizdat, 1970: 447 p. [In Russian].
19. Maksimov I.V., Smirnov N.P., Vorob’ev V.N. Long-term forecast of long-term changes in the total ice content of the Barents sea, compiled by the component-harmonic method. Materialy rybokhoziaistvennykh issledovanii Severnogo basseina. Materials of fisheries research in the Northern basin. 1964, 4: 73–85. [In Russian].
20. Loginov V.F. Kosmicheskie faktory klimaticheskikh izmenenii. Space factors of climate change. Minsk, 2020: 168 p. [In Russian].
Review
For citations:
Loginov V.F., Lysenko S.A., Brovka Yu.A., Mikutsky V.S. Cyclical structure and the prerequisites for forecasting of the duration of Arctic invasions for the next decade. Arctic and Antarctic Research. 2020;66(2):144-161. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.30758/0555-2648-2020-66-2-144-161
Views:
1239
Email this article 
