Change in the duration of the ice-free period in the Arctic seas from 1991 to 2023
https://doi.org/10.30758/0555-2648-2025-71-2-147-163
Abstract
The Arctic seas are subdivided by the characteristic features of the ice regime into natural areas identified in the course of many years of observations and research by various scientists. At present, the ice cover of the Arctic seas is traditionally determined relative to such areas, identified in 1972 at the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute. The ice-free period has some advantages over ice cover; for example, its start and end dates are an important ice characteristic. However, it is not always possible to determine the ice-free period for a large area of the sea since ice rarely disappears over its entire water area. In addition, climate change has led to the boundaries of some previously identified areas not fully corresponding to parts of the sea with uniform ice conditions. Warming in the Arctic has led to the southern waters of the Laptev Sea and the southwest of the East Siberian Sea becoming free of ice almost every year in recent decades, while in their northern part the ice-free period does not occur in some years. Therefore, for a more accurate dating of the ice-free period for the Laptev and East Siberian seas, this article proposes making some additions to the traditional zoning. The increase in the duration of the ice-free period in different parts of the seas began at different times, on average around 2000. To describe this process in the article, the time period from 1991 to 2023 was divided into three equal eleven-year periods. For each of them, the values of the duration of the ice-free period were calculated. The data analysis showed that the duration of the ice-free period in all parts of the Arctic seas in the second period (2002–2012) increased significantly compared to the first period (1991–2001). The increase ranged from 13 to 88 days, depending on the area of the sea. Over the past 11 years (2013–2023), the duration of the ice-free period in the Kara, Laptev, and northwestern part of the East Siberian Sea has increased by 8–18 days compared to the second time interval (2002–2012). In the southwestern and eastern parts of the East Siberian Sea, as well as in the Chukchi Sea, the ice-free period has not increased over the past 11 years, although compared to the first time period (1991–2001), it remains quite large.
Supporting agencies: The research was carried out within the framework of the Scientific and Technical Project 5.1.2 of Roshydromet for 2020–2024: “Development of existing and new methods and technologies for long-term (monthly and seasonal) forecasting of elements of the ice-hydrological regime of the Arctic seas, lower reaches and estuarine areas of rivers in the context of climate change”, theme 252625.
About the Authors
V. S. Porubaev
State Scientific Center of the Russian Federation Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
St. Petersburg
L. P. Mochnova
State Scientific Center of the Russian Federation Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
St. Petersburg
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Review
For citations:
Porubaev V.S., Mochnova L.P. Change in the duration of the ice-free period in the Arctic seas from 1991 to 2023. Arctic and Antarctic Research. 2025;71(2):147-163. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.30758/0555-2648-2025-71-2-147-163
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