On Assessment of Climatic Risks and Vulnerability of Natural and Economic Systems in the Sea Zone of the Russian Arctic
https://doi.org/10.30758/0555-2648-2018-64-1-55-70
Abstract
The article presents an analysis of the impacts of climate change on the natural and economic systems of theArcticand the existing methods for assessing climatic risks. Based on the analysis of the impact of climate change on natural and economic systems and the Arctic population, a register of risks due to climate change has been formed. A conceptual model for assessing the impact of climate change on various systems is proposed. The main problems in the identification of climatic risks in theArcticare identified. Indicators of climate change were selected: the surface air temperature; sea ice extent and the frequency of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena that affect economic activity in the Arctic sea zone and its individual regions. The assessment methodology of natural and economic systems vulnerabilities in the Russian Arctic sea zone, including susceptibility to impacts, sensitivity and adaptive potential, is considered. These are the key factors on the basis of which the systems vulnerability to climate change is determined, as well as the information support of the processes of assessment and reduction of the consequences of climate threats. The algorithm of the developed methodology for vulnerability determining includes a sequence of 7 steps.
Supporting agencies: Roshydromet CSTP (projects .3.3.1 and 1.3.4.2)
About the Authors
S. A. Soldatenko
State Scientific Center of the Russian Federation Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute
Russian Federation
St. Petersburg
Russian Federation
St. Petersburg
G. V. Alekseev
State Scientific Center of the Russian Federation Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute
Russian Federation
St. Petersburg
Russian Federation
St. Petersburg
N. E. Ivanov
State Scientific Center of the Russian Federation Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute
Russian Federation
St. Petersburg
Russian Federation
St. Petersburg
A. E. Vyazilova
State Scientific Center of the Russian Federation Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute
Russian Federation
St. Petersburg
Russian Federation
St. Petersburg
N. E. Kharlanenkova
State Scientific Center of the Russian Federation Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute
Russian Federation
St. Petersburg
Russian Federation
St. Petersburg
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Review
For citations:
Soldatenko S.A., Alekseev G.V., Ivanov N.E., Vyazilova A.E., Kharlanenkova N.E. On Assessment of Climatic Risks and Vulnerability of Natural and Economic Systems in the Sea Zone of the Russian Arctic. Arctic and Antarctic Research. 2018;64(1):55-70. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.30758/0555-2648-2018-64-1-55-70
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